Analysts Call U.S.-Brokered Ceasefire in Lebanon A Strategic Win for Israel

A recent U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal has brought an end to nearly 14 months of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese armed group. The agreement, which went into effect on November 27, 2024, marks a significant diplomatic victory for Israel, as it successfully achieved its core objectives in the conflict. Despite the cessation of fighting, the implications of the deal are far from simple, with lingering questions about Hezbollah’s future role in Lebanon and its relationship with Iran.

Israel's Key Achievements

Experts believe that Israel achieved its primary war aims through the ceasefire. The agreement weakens Hezbollah both militarily and politically, eroding the group’s standing as a formidable military force in Lebanon. Furthermore, Israel managed to decouple Hezbollah’s rocket and missile attacks on Israeli territory from the ongoing Gaza conflict, preventing the Lebanese militia from using the war in Gaza as a platform for further hostilities.

The truce will also end Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon, marking a significant strategic shift. As a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, Hezbollah's departure from the southern border region under the terms of the ceasefire represents a major blow to its influence in the country. However, the agreement also requires Israel to withdraw its own ground forces from Lebanese territory, a move that could have broader consequences for regional dynamics.

Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Le Beck International consultancy, emphasized that Israel "got the deal it wanted," despite some voices in Israel suggesting the conflict could have continued with the goal of fully defeating Hezbollah. Horowitz noted that the deal reached is one of the best Israel could have hoped for under the circumstances.

The Future of Hezbollah: A Weakened but Resilient Force

Although Israel’s military efforts have decimated Hezbollah’s leadership and military arsenal, experts caution that the group is far from finished. Matthew Levitt, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, warns that Hezbollah remains dangerous, despite its weakened state. The group still holds significant political power in Lebanon, particularly within the Shi’ite Muslim community, and it retains considerable support among segments of the population.

Hezbollah’s narrative as Lebanon’s protector against Israel has been severely undermined by the war, but the group is not expected to fade quietly into the background. Analysts predict that Hezbollah will face a legitimacy crisis as it adjusts to the new political realities in Lebanon. The group will also need to reevaluate its leadership, which has been criticized for its strategic missteps during the conflict.

The Iranian Factor: Strategic Respite or Preparations for Future Confrontation?

One of the most significant aspects of the ceasefire is its implications for Iran, Hezbollah’s main regional patron. Iran has long seen Hezbollah as a crucial ally in its broader geopolitical struggle against Israel and the West. While the ceasefire provides a temporary respite for Hezbollah, experts believe that Iran will likely use this time to help the group rebuild and strengthen its position for future confrontations.

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, suggests that Iran views the ceasefire as a "temporary respite" that will allow Hezbollah to reestablish its strength. This period of calm may allow Hezbollah to regain its footing, both militarily and politically, in preparation for future conflicts.

Regional and Global Implications

The ceasefire agreement is being monitored by both the United States and France, who will oversee its implementation. For Lebanon, the presence of U.S. and French forces, including a significant peacekeeping contingent, may be a source of tension. Hezbollah and its supporters view the West as a destabilizing influence, and Iran sees this as an attempt to weaken Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon.

Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Rashid Bou Habib, however, emphasized that the agreement was supported by all Lebanese factions, including Hezbollah. Despite this commitment, the ongoing political and military challenges in the region leave little room for optimism about long-term stability. Hezbollah’s continued commitment to its “resistance” against Israel, despite the ceasefire, suggests that tensions in southern Lebanon could flare up again in the future.