Declining Reserve Soldier Turnout and the Economic Toll of Israel’s War Effort

In recent weeks, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have seen a significant drop in the number of reservists reporting for duty, following the initial surge at the start of the ongoing war with Hamas. This decline has raised concerns over burnout, family strain, and the economic burden on those serving.

At the onset of the conflict, the IDF reported a record-breaking response to its call-up of reserve soldiers, with over 100% of the expected reservists showing up, a number that reached nearly 300,000. Some units even reported turnout rates of 150%, with many reservists voluntarily reporting for duty despite not receiving formal orders. However, as the war has dragged on, particularly with ongoing fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, the turnout rate has steadily declined, with current participation fluctuating between 75% and 85%.

The reasons for this decrease are multifaceted, including exhaustion from long deployments, separation from families, economic hardship from lost jobs, and disrupted academic pursuits. Many reservists have expressed frustration with the perceived inequality in military service, particularly regarding the lack of participation from Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community, which has historically been exempted from conscription.

The Ultra-Orthodox Debate

The issue of ultra-Orthodox participation in military service remains one of Israel’s most contentious political challenges. While national religious and secular communities serve in large numbers, the ultra-Orthodox leadership continues to resist mandatory enlistment, citing concerns over the incompatibility of military life with their religious practices. This ongoing dispute has led to widespread resentment, especially in the context of the current war, where more than 780 soldiers have been killed and over 300,000 reservists mobilized.

The IDF has been attempting to expand its regular service ranks and reduce reliance on reservists by lengthening the mandatory military service period. In addition, the military has been seeking to bring more ultra-Orthodox soldiers into active service. This year, Israel has managed to draft around 1,800 Haredi soldiers, with plans to increase that number to about 3,000 by the end of the year.

Financial Strain: A Heavy Burden for Households

On the economic front, the ongoing war, combined with the potential increase in defense spending, is placing a significant financial strain on Israeli households. According to a report by Shmuel Abramzon, the chief economist at Israel’s Finance Ministry, an additional permanent NIS 10 billion ($2.67 billion) increase in defense spending could result in an annual increase of NIS 4,000 per household.

The additional defense costs are expected to come from higher taxes, cuts in public services, and the negative impact of a slowing economy. Israel’s structural deficit and high debt-to-GDP ratio are already under strain, and without fiscal adjustments, the government could face higher borrowing costs and reduced economic growth.

A Fragile Balance: Security vs. Economic Growth

While defense spending is essential for ensuring Israel’s security in light of the ongoing conflict, it must be balanced with economic needs. The Finance Ministry has warned that the current trajectory of increased defense spending may harm the country’s fiscal health, which could lead to higher interest rates, reduced investments, and an overall slowdown in economic activity.

With the war expected to incur over NIS 250 billion ($67 billion) in defense and civilian costs by 2025, Israel is at a critical juncture, needing to strike a delicate balance between funding the war effort and securing the future of its economy.