Hezbollah Escalates Attacks on Israel in October 2024: A Major Shift in Tactics

In October 2024, Hezbollah ramped up its military activity against Israel, launching a significant number of attacks—four times more than in previous months, according to data from the Alma Center, a research institute that tracks security issues along the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 694 out of 1,158 recorded incidents, marking a major escalation in the ongoing conflict that began in October 2023.

A Surge in Attacks and Casualties

October alone saw 54 deaths in northern Israel, including 40 IDF soldiers, 10 Israeli civilians, and 4 foreign workers. The frequency of these attacks has spiked, with Hezbollah's strikes extending beyond the usual 5 km border zone into deeper Israeli territory.

While 54% of Hezbollah’s attacks were aimed at areas within 5 km of the border, the number of incidents extending beyond that range grew significantly, rising to 296 attacks in October, up from 160 in September. The attacks included rocket fire, missile strikes, and UAV (drone) incursions.

Rocket Fire and Drone Warfare

Rockets have become Hezbollah’s primary tactic against Israeli civilian areas, particularly those located along the northern border. October saw at least 2,291 rockets and missiles cross into Israel, based on IDF reports. In addition, Hezbollah’s use of drones has increased, with UAV incursions becoming a focal point of their offensive. Drones have forced civilians into shelters and engaged Israel's defense systems, symbolizing both a tactical victory and a war of attrition for Hezbollah.

Among the notable attacks was the strike on the Golani Brigade base in Regavim, which resulted in four IDF soldiers' deaths, and another UAV attack on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea, which caused property damage.

Growing Threat in Northern Israel

Border communities like Metulla, Misgav Am, and Kiryat Shmona bore the brunt of the rocket fire, while more distant locations, including Safed, Nahariya, Haifa, and even Tel Aviv, saw a rise in attacks compared to previous months.

The escalation in attacks is partly a response to ongoing Israeli Defense Force (IDF) operations in southern Lebanon and the larger Israel-Hezbollah conflict that has been intensifying in 2024.

Hezbollah's Strategic Narrative

According to Alma Center researchers Tal Beeri and Dana Pollak, Hezbollah is seeking to create a "victory narrative" through its attacks, particularly through drone warfare. The drone strikes force Israel to deploy its full defense systems, creating a sense of resistance while inflicting operational strain on Israel. Despite facing heavy losses, Hezbollah continues to escalate its military actions to maintain this narrative.

Hezbollah's Credibility Struggles

Despite the high volume of attacks, there have been discrepancies in Hezbollah’s public claims. In October, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 102 attacks that could not be verified by the IDF, and it failed to claim responsibility for 464 confirmed incidents. This shift in Hezbollah’s communication could indicate internal challenges, including possible coordination issues.

Impact on IDF Operations in Lebanon

On the ground, the IDF has intensified efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Lebanon. The IDF recently uncovered and destroyed a Hezbollah terror compound beneath a cemetery in southern Lebanon. This compound was equipped with tunnels, command rooms, and weapons, and was located just 1.5 km from the Israeli border.

The IDF continues to focus on neutralizing Hezbollah's capabilities and pushing the group away from the Israeli border region to ensure the safety of northern Israeli communities.

Regional Spillover: Strikes in Syria

In parallel to the intensifying conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border, Israeli airstrikes have targeted Hezbollah and Iranian assets in Syria, including a recent strike in Damascus that killed seven civilians, according to the Assad regime. This escalation reflects the broader regional tensions involving Hezbollah and its allies, particularly Iran.