Iran Faces Crisis as Sunni Rebels Push Back in Syria

A recent offensive by Sunni rebels in Syria has exposed deep cracks in Iran's strategy, with the Islamic Republic struggling to maintain control in the region. According to Benny Sabati, a researcher from the Institute for National Security Studies think tank in Tel Aviv, Iran’s involvement in various proxy conflicts against Israel has left it significantly weakened, making it difficult for Tehran to aid the Assad regime in Syria.

Sabati argues that Iran has paid a heavy price for its operations against Israel over the past year, losing many key personnel, including field commanders in Hezbollah, Hamas, and other proxy groups. This loss of leadership and manpower has left Iran in a vulnerable position, unable to provide support to the Syrian regime in its time of need.

"Not only can Iran not assist the regime, but it is also becoming a target itself," Sabati stated, referring to the recent targeting of Iranian generals and the capture of the Iranian consulate by rebel forces.

A Crisis on Two Fronts

Iran has historically struggled with managing simultaneous military engagements. Sabati explains that when Iran focuses on one front, such as its efforts against Israel, it often neglects other areas, such as Syria, where Sunni extremist groups have gained significant ground in recent years. This neglect is now evident, as Sunni rebel groups, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have launched successful attacks, forcing the regime to divert resources from its Israeli operations.

In an attempt to resolve the crisis, Iran has turned to Russia for assistance. However, Sabati believes that even Iranian foreign ministers' diplomatic efforts have been largely symbolic, as Russia may not have the capacity or willingness to intervene decisively. Despite this, Iran’s reliance on Russia could indicate a deeper shift in the balance of power within the region.

Sabati also noted that the Iranian public is increasingly angered by the resources being funneled into foreign operations rather than addressing domestic needs. The regional implications are significant, with the future of the Syrian regime hanging in the balance. If Russia intervenes to suppress the rebels, the Assad regime may survive. However, if Russia pulls back, both Iran and the regime could face a major defeat.

Meanwhile, Israel has been closely monitoring the developments in Syria, particularly the rebel attack on Aleppo. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to protecting its security interests, stating that the country is prepared to respond forcefully to any violation of its ceasefire agreement with Lebanon. Netanyahu also highlighted the increase in recruitment for Israel's Armored Corps, underscoring the country’s readiness for any escalation in the region.