Iran Faces New U.S. Sanctions Amidst Heightened Tensions with Moscow

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has reaffirmed Tehran's stance against U.S. pressure following the imposition of new sanctions targeting the country's oil industry. This statement came after a key meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Tehran on February 25, 2025. Lavrov's visit comes just days after high-level talks between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia, sparking speculation about a potential reset in U.S.-Russia relations.

Analysts suggest that Lavrov's visit to Tehran could serve as a check-in to ensure Iran's alignment with Moscow's position, particularly regarding relations with Washington. While some in Iran worry that Russia might abandon Tehran to rekindle relations with the U.S., others hope that Moscow can mediate an end to the standoff between Tehran and Washington.

Despite these concerns, Araqchi stated that Iran would not engage in direct negotiations with the U.S. as long as the "maximum pressure" campaign continues. This pressure escalated after former U.S. President Trump reinstated sanctions on Iran, citing the country's nuclear activities and growing uranium enrichment efforts.

Iran’s conservative media outlets have raised alarms over the potential for a "grand bargain" between Washington and Moscow, fearing that such a deal could compromise Tehran's interests. The daily Jomhuri Eslami warned that Russia might turn a blind eye to any U.S. military action against Iran, while the daily Etemad speculated that Lavrov might be carrying messages from Washington to help de-escalate tensions between Iran and the U.S.

Despite mutual mistrust, Iran and Russia have deepened their ties since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, particularly in the areas of military cooperation. Iran has provided Russia with drones, although both countries deny claims that they are directly involved in military action.

The possibility of a reset between the U.S. and Russia has sparked mixed reactions in Iran. Some view it as an opportunity to break the diplomatic deadlock with Washington, while others worry that Russia may prioritize its own national interests over Iran's concerns. Lavrov's visit could signal Moscow's intent to exert pressure on Tehran to align more closely with Russia's strategic goals.

In related news, the U.S. sanctions on oil tankers have made it more challenging for Iran to ship its crude oil, as Tehran now faces intense competition from Russia and Venezuela for non-sanctioned vessels. According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, the limited availability of tankers willing to carry high-risk sanctioned oil has created a fierce battle between these countries to secure shipping vessels that have not yet been blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury.

The intensified sanctions, particularly since the beginning of 2025, have led to a shortage of non-sanctioned tankers. Countries like China and India, which are some of the largest oil importers in Asia, are increasingly steering clear of tankers that have been sanctioned by the U.S., further limiting the availability of vessels for Iran’s crude oil exports.

While about 150 tankers were used for Iranian oil shipments last year, over 100 of these have been blacklisted by the U.S. in 2025, leaving fewer and fewer options for Iran. As a result, Iranian oil exports have been on the decline. According to Kpler's estimates, Iran’s oil exports have dropped to about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.76 million bpd in November 2024, before the stricter sanctions were implemented.

The latest round of sanctions imposed by the U.S. includes measures targeting Iran’s shadow fleet, further complicating the situation. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, emphasized that anyone involved in the trade of Iranian oil is exposed to significant sanctions risk.

In addition, the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has added four Indian companies to its list of entities sanctioned for their involvement in the international trade of Iranian crude. These actions highlight the U.S. administration's ongoing pressure on Iran's oil supply chain.