Iran Opens Communication Channels with New Syrian Leadership After Assad's Ouster

Following the dramatic fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran has established direct communication with the new Syrian leadership to prevent a shift away from its sphere of influence. This move comes amid concerns about the future of Iran’s strategic position in Syria and its broader regional ambitions.

The lightning-fast advance of opposition groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, marked a significant turning point in the Middle East. Assad's sudden ouster not only ended his 13-year rule but also weakened Iran’s influence, which had been heavily embedded in Syria under Assad’s regime. Hours after the fall, Iranian officials expressed hopes of continuing strong ties with Syria, emphasizing the need for an inclusive government that represents all segments of the Syrian population.

While Tehran remains concerned about the future direction of Syrian politics, it is cautious about the new leadership's stance toward Iran. Tehran has actively sought diplomatic channels to engage with Syria’s new rulers, especially those with views more aligned with Iranian interests. A hostile Syria would sever crucial ties for Iran, particularly depriving Hezbollah of its land supply route and limiting Iran’s access to the Mediterranean and its front-line positions against Israel.

Iran has reportedly established contact with two groups inside Syria’s new leadership, with further assessments planned. Tehran remains wary of the return of US President Donald Trump and the possible intensification of economic and political pressure on Iran, especially given Trump's history with Iran, including the withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the killing of Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

The fall of Assad has already exposed Iran’s diminishing leverage in the region, especially as Israel continues military offensives against its allies Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran's long-standing support for Assad, including deploying its Revolutionary Guards to maintain Assad's power, has been a cornerstone of Tehran's "Axis of Resistance" in the Middle East. With Assad's departure, Iran faces a significant loss of influence, and it now has two critical options: retreat or seek a new deal with the US.