Iran, Syria, and the Astana Talks: Regional Dynamics and Tensions with Israel

In a recent meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, Iran’s senior foreign adviser, Ali Asghar Khaji, engaged in high-level discussions with a Syrian delegation as part of the ongoing Astana process, which has been active for six years. The aim of these talks is to bring together key regional players—Iran, Russia, and Turkey—to shape Syria's future amidst the continuing civil war and regional power shifts.

The Astana format, initiated in 2017, was designed to address the Syrian civil war that began in 2011. While Syria's regime, led by President Bashar al-Assad, has regained significant control over much of western Syria, the Astana talks have focused on fostering cooperation between Iran, Russia, and Turkey. The ultimate goal of these negotiations is to push for a reconciliation between Turkey and Damascus, which has been a longstanding point of contention due to Turkey's support for Syrian opposition groups.

At the heart of Iran's involvement in Astana is its strategic alignment with Syria and Russia. Iran has made it clear in the recent talks that one of its primary concerns remains the situation with Israel, which it accuses of aggression in the region.

Iran’s Regional Ambitions: Countering Israel and Strengthening Alliances

During the 22nd round of talks in Astana, which took place earlier this month, Iran's representative Ali Asghar Khaji emphasized the need for continued cooperation between Syria and Iran. According to Iranian state media (IRNA), Khaji and the Syrian chief negotiator discussed the “crimes and aggressive attacks of the Zionist regime,” referring to Israel's military actions in Syria and beyond.

Iran's position is clear: it wants to use the Astana meetings to promote regional stability, counter what it views as Israeli aggression, and support the Palestinian and Lebanese causes. This rhetoric aligns with Iran's broader strategy of increasing influence in the Middle East through partnerships with groups like Hezbollah and militias in Iraq.

The meetings also focused on Iran's desire to involve regional actors, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia, in discussions about regional security. Iran is seeking to strengthen its alliances and continue its push to isolate Israel diplomatically and militarily.

The Syrian-Iranian Relationship: A Strategic Alliance

The bilateral discussions between Iran and Syria in Astana also underscored the importance of their strategic relationship. Syrian officials reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening ties with Tehran, with an emphasis on continuing to work together to address regional threats, particularly from Israel. Both countries have been fighting side by side against opposition forces in Syria, and Iran has been instrumental in providing military and economic support to the Assad regime.

At the same time, Iran is increasingly focused on expanding its influence in the broader Arab world. Recent meetings in Saudi Arabia and Tehran signal a shift in regional diplomacy, with both countries working to reduce tensions after years of hostility. These meetings, along with the Astana talks, reflect Iran's broader strategy of fostering regional cooperation and isolating Israel.

Rising Tensions with Israel: Iran's Continued Threats

The Iranian leadership has long called for an end to what it terms the "crimes" of the Israeli government, particularly regarding its military operations in Syria and its support for anti-Iranian forces in the region. Meanwhile, Iran's military presence in Syria, including missile and drone operations, is seen as a direct challenge to Israel's security. In recent months, Israeli airstrikes have targeted Iranian assets in Syria, including weapons depots and military infrastructure, as part of its campaign to curb Iran's growing influence in the region.

The Role of Russia and Turkey in the Astana Talks

While Iran is deeply invested in the Astana process, the roles of Russia and Turkey remain less certain. Russia has been a key ally of both Iran and Syria, using its leverage to maintain a foothold in Syria while managing its own interests in the region. Turkey, on the other hand, has its own agenda in Syria, particularly concerning the Kurdish factions that have fought alongside the U.S. against ISIS. While Turkey is officially part of the Astana talks, its relationship with both Syria and Iran remains strained, making it difficult to predict how much influence it will have in shaping Syria's future.