Iranian Regime Shocked and Disoriented Over Events in Lebanon

September 29, 2024

Reading time: 3 minutes


The New York Times quoted four unnamed Iranian officials on Sunday in a report that said the regime in Teheran is deeply shaken, "divided and bewildered" over the assassination of Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah and the other setbacks they've suffered in recent weeks. There appears to be indecision at the very top of the regime, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being urged by some of his advisors to strike Israel directly in response while other, more moderate voices are calling for restraint.

Khamenei is also reported to be worried about his own safety, as are other senior members of the Ayatollah regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

According to the New York Times report, Khamenei was “deeply shaken” upon hearing the news about Nasrallah's death, as the two were close friends for many years. Khamenei was immediately moved to a secure location, after which he made a fiery speech vowing revenge on Israel.

He also called an emergency meeting of his senior advisers to discuss what to do next. It was at this meeting that sharp differences arose among his advisers, including Saeed Jalili, who thought it wise to hit Israel before it has a chance to start assassinating senior Iranian officials like it's already assassinated so many Hezbollah officials in recent weeks.

However, the more moderate camp, led by President Masoud Pezeshkian, urged caution, saying that this is exactly what Israel wants Iran to do, so it will start a regional war which Iran would be sure to lose, and even if it didn't there would be catastrophic damage to infrastructure critical to Iran's fragile economy.

Folllowing this meeting, Khamenei made a blustery speech, declaring among other things that “All of the forces in the resistance stand by Hezbollah. It will be Hezbollah, at the helm of the resistance forces, that will determine the fate of the region...Lebanon will make the aggressor and the evil enemy regretful."

Other Iranian officials echoed these sentiments, and some analysts speculated that this was an indication that Iran is leaving its allies to fend for themselves.

However, the sources did say that senior members of the IRGC Quds Force are being dispatched to Beirut to assist Hezbollah in the immediate aftermath of the loss of Nasrallah.

Meanwhile, the IDF announced on Sunday morning that it had eliminated another senior Hezbollah commander, Nabil Qaouk, in an airstrike Saturday in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. As the commander of Hezbollah’s “preventive security unit” and a senior member of its executive council, Qaouk would have been a serious candidate to replace Nasrallah, but that's no longer an option.

Also on Sunday, confirmation came from that Ali Karaki, the commander of the Southern Front, had perished alongside Nasrallah in the IDF strike on Friday afternoon.

The IDF has continued pounding Hezbollah targets all over Lebanon throughout the day Sunday. According to a Syrian opposition group, strikes from an unknown origin have also destroyed positions and killed personnel of militias allied with Iran in that country in recent days.

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