Israel Prepares for Potential Confrontation with Turkey Amid Rising Regional Tensions

In a move reflecting heightened concerns about Turkey’s growing influence in the Middle East, Israel convened a special security meeting led by Defense Minister Israel Katz on Wednesday. The gathering included senior officials such as Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, and top figures from Israel’s Foreign Ministry and defense establishment. The meeting focused on analyzing the increasing influence of Turkey in the region, particularly in the aftermath of Syria's political shifts.

The primary concern driving the discussions was Turkey’s role in Syria, especially following the potential downfall of the Assad regime and the rise of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, a group backed by Turkey for over a decade. Israeli officials fear that a Turkey-Syria axis could lead to growing instability in the region and present a new threat to Israel. Although Iran’s influence in Syria appears to be diminishing, the possibility of a Sunni Turkey-backed alignment in Syria remains a cause for concern.

The Nagel Committee, which recently submitted a report to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, underscored the risks associated with Turkey’s growing involvement. The report warns of “acute friction” with Turkey, highlighting the potential for conflicts that may spill over into broader regional issues. Furthermore, the committee highlighted the possibility of Syrian factions aligning with Turkish-backed forces, which could fuel instability and pose a direct threat to Israel’s security.

Rising Turkish Tensions

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly assertive policies have raised alarms among Israeli officials. The Nagel Committee’s report highlighted concerns over Erdogan’s rhetoric against Israel, pointing out that Turkey’s ambitions to restore its Ottoman-era influence could lead to an escalation in tensions. As Turkey strengthens its foothold in the region, Israel must prepare for the possibility of a direct confrontation, as the committee emphasized the growing need for military readiness.

In response to these concerns, the Nagel Committee has proposed a significant increase in Israel’s defense budget—by up to NIS 15 billion annually over the next five years. This would ensure that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are equipped to address not only the challenges posed by Turkey but also other emerging regional threats. Netanyahu acknowledged the shift in regional dynamics, noting, “We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected.”