Lebanon Views U.S. Ceasefire Proposal Positively Amid Ongoing Hezbollah-Israel Conflict

Lebanon has expressed a positive view towards the US ceasefire proposal aimed at halting hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as revealed by a report from the LBCI news outlet. The U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, presented the proposal last week, with U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein expected to visit Lebanon on Tuesday to discuss the terms in more detail.

While Lebanon has not yet accepted the ceasefire offer, it has acknowledged the proposal as a constructive step. This is particularly significant as Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in cross-border fighting for over a year, further complicated by Israel's simultaneous conflict with Hamas in Gaza. U.S. President Joe Biden aims to implement the ceasefire before his term ends on January 20, 2025.

UN Security Resolution 1701 and Enforcement Mechanism

The potential ceasefire would likely be based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the *2006 Lebanon War* and called for the disarmament of non-state actors, including Hezbollah, in southern Lebanon. However, the resolution lacks a clear enforcement mechanism to ensure compliance, something that both the U.S. and Israel are keen to address.

Israel has emphasized the need for an enforcement mechanism to ensure that Hezbollah does not rearm along Lebanon's northern border. However, both Lebanon and Hezbollah have strongly opposed any such provision, arguing that other measures should be explored to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament without granting Israel the right to strike Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Escalating Social and Political Tensions in Lebanon

The ongoing conflict has exacerbated internal tensions within Lebanon, particularly among its Shiite community, which is Hezbollah's primary support base. *Professor Amatzia Baram, a Middle East expert, notes that the Shiite population is facing unprecedented pressure from both internal and external sources, creating cracks in Hezbollah’s previously unshakable support structure.

The refugee crisis is one major factor. Lebanon currently hosts around 1.25 million refugees, many of whom are Shiites fleeing the ongoing fighting. These refugees are facing severe housing shortages and are often met with hostility from other communities, including Druze, Sunnis, and Christians, who hold Hezbollah responsible for dragging Lebanon into conflict.

Hezbollah’s Declining Support and Rising Internal Strife

The social and political pressure has also reached Hezbollah’s ranks. Families of Hezbollah operatives are fleeing their homes, leading to growing dissatisfaction among the group's fighters, who are increasingly pressing their commanders to end the fighting and return to their homes in southern Lebanon.

Moreover, internal political shifts are being felt, as seen in the Free Patriotic Movement’s recent decision to withdraw its support for Hezbollah. This Christian Maronite party, led by Gebran Bassil, had been a key ally of Hezbollah for years but recently announced that it could no longer support Hezbollah’s actions, particularly as the group pursues military action related to Gaza rather than focusing on Lebanon’s security.

In a sign of internal discord, Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General, *Naim Qassem, has modified his stance on the ceasefire. Initially, Qassem linked a ceasefire in Lebanon to the situation in Gaza, but he has since supported a separate ceasefire for Lebanon, signaling a potential shift in Hezbollah’s strategy to separate the fronts.

The growing sectarian tensions in Lebanon are also contributing to Hezbollah’s declining influence. Druze and Christian communities, once more tolerant of Hezbollah, are increasingly opposing the organization, with rising resistance visible in the media and political discourse.