Russia Moves Military Assets from Syria to Libya: Growing Security Concerns in the Mediterranean

Russia’s increasing military presence in Libya has sparked concerns over security in the Mediterranean, with Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, warning of the risks posed by Russian assets moving from Syria to Libya. Crosetto highlighted the proximity of Russian ships and submarines, which could now be as close as “two steps away” from Europe, compared to their previous location 1,000 kilometers away in Syria.

Recent developments show Russian forces, which have been backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, shifting personnel and material from their bases in Syria. The country’s naval presence, previously docked at the Syrian port of Tartus, appears to be heading toward Libya, where Russia has been negotiating to secure a base at the port city of Tobruk with local leader Gen. Khalifa Haftar. The possibility of Russia relocating its naval assets to Libya would offer Moscow a key Mediterranean port, should it lose access to Tartus.

Though no direct evidence has confirmed the movement of warships to Libya yet, satellite images and reports indicate increased flights from Russia and Belarus to Libya, as Moscow steps up its military operations in the region. Russia already operates bases in eastern Libya, where it supports military forces backing various African coup leaders.

Analysts suggest that the relocation of assets could be a strategic move for Russia to strengthen its foothold in Libya, as it potentially downsizes its presence in Syria. This shift would mark a significant geopolitical move and could be seen as a challenge to NATO and Western powers, especially if Russia’s military presence in Libya becomes more pronounced.

While discussions continue, it is unclear whether Russia’s presence in Libya will be formalized through an official agreement with Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), or whether it will remain informal. The role of Turkey, which supports the Tripoli government, is another critical factor to consider, as any Russian presence in Libya would require Turkish cooperation or acquiescence.

As this situation develops, both the U.S. and the U.K. are expected to closely monitor the situation, as Russia’s actions in Libya may change the balance of power in the region.