Saudi Arabia to U.S.: No Normalization with Israel Until Gaza War Ends

Saudi Arabia has informed associates of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump that it will not normalize ties with Israel until the ongoing war in Gaza comes to an end. According to sources familiar with the matter, Saudi officials, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, shared this stance with key figures close to Trump, including his incoming special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff.

The discussions took place in recent weeks, and Saudi officials emphasized that normalization could only proceed after the cessation of hostilities in Gaza. The Kingdom also indicated that any normalization agreement would require a statement regarding a Palestinian state or a pathway toward one, although full recognition of a Palestinian state was not necessary at this stage.

While normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia seems possible, it hinges on the ongoing situation in Gaza. Saudi officials are pushing for a statement that acknowledges Israel’s commitment to a Palestinian state or at least a clear pathway toward its creation. This development comes on the heels of reports earlier in the week indicating that a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia may already be in place.

The U.S.-Saudi relationship has seen ups and downs, particularly during President Biden’s tenure. The Biden administration's tension with Saudi Arabia, notably after Biden labeled it a "pariah" state, shifted dynamics. However, under Trump, who has expressed intentions to ramp up pressure on Iran, there are opportunities for closer U.S.-Saudi cooperation, especially given shared interests in oil markets.

A key factor in Saudi Arabia’s decision-making is its desire for stable and high oil prices. Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia stand to benefit from higher oil prices, particularly as Trump is likely to impose tougher sanctions on Iran’s oil sector. These sanctions could reduce global oil supply, boosting prices, which would benefit both U.S. oil producers and Saudi Aramco. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious economic diversification plans require a strong budget, which relies on oil prices reaching $100 per barrel.

Despite challenges such as weaker demand from China and global oil overproduction, experts argue that additional sanctions on Iran could restore balance to the global oil market, benefiting both nations’ economies.