Syrian Rebels Take Full Control of Hama, Marking a Major Setback for Assad

Syrian rebel forces have announced that they have seized full control of Hama, Syria's second-largest city, after government forces withdrew. This victory marks a significant blow to President Bashar al-Assad's regime, which has already faced numerous challenges in maintaining control over the country.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared “victory” in Hama and assured local residents that there would be "no retribution" following the city’s capture. This statement was aimed at calming fears among the population, many of whom had endured years of violence and repression.

Rebels Advance Toward Homs and Damascus

With Hama now under rebel control, HTS forces quickly advanced toward Homs, a key strategic city on the route to the Syrian capital, Damascus. Rebel units are now just a few kilometers away from Homs, and if it falls, the path to Damascus will be wide open. This shift could also put Russian military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim within striking distance.

The rebels' rapid advance has raised serious questions about the Assad regime’s ability to defend its territory, especially as its allies, Russia and Iran, are distracted by other regional conflicts. With a weakened military and economic constraints, it remains uncertain how Assad can counter the growing threat to his government’s survival.

Syria’s Struggling Military

The Assad regime’s military has long been plagued by chronic issues, including low morale, insufficient training, and inadequate pay for non-elite forces. These problems have left the Syrian army poorly equipped to counter large-scale rebel offensives.

In Hama, government forces initially managed to push back rebel forces and establish a defensive line near the town of Kumhana. However, HTS brought reinforcements from Idlib and Aleppo, outflanking these defenses and forcing the Syrian army to retreat from the city. This loss underscores the deepening vulnerabilities within the Assad military apparatus.

The Fall of Hama: A Turning Point in the Civil War

The fall of Hama marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s ongoing civil war. As rebel forces continue to advance, the possibility of the regime losing control over vital cities such as Homs and Damascus becomes more real. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Russian military installations in Syria, such as those in Tartus and Khmeimim, could soon be within range of rebel attacks, potentially weakening Russian support for Assad.

As rebel forces push closer to Assad’s power base, the fate of Syria’s remaining loyalist territories hangs in the balance. The future stability of the country, as well as the continued presence of Russian and Iranian forces in the region, is now uncertain.

Oil Market Update: OPEC+ and the Impact on Global Oil Prices

On the economic front, OPEC+ has decided to extend its oil production cuts until September 2026, but oil prices continue to remain under pressure. Despite expectations that the decision would support prices, concerns about weak global demand and oversupply have kept oil benchmarks subdued.

Brent crude is trading at $72.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is at $68.34 per barrel, both slightly down from the previous day’s close. Analysts, however, remain divided about the oil market’s future. Some argue that the production cuts by OPEC+ are insufficient to bring the market into deficit, while others warn that the full extent of oil removals has yet to be fully priced in.

The situation in Syria and the global oil market continue to evolve rapidly. The ongoing conflict in Syria threatens to destabilize the region further, while oil market dynamics, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, are causing fluctuations in energy prices worldwide.