Syria’s Geopolitical and Energy Landscape Shifts After Assad's Removal

Following the unexpected ousting of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria on December 8, 2024, discussions have ignited regarding Syria’s future control and its vital energy resources. Initially, the United States, along with Russia, Iran, and the European Union, had prepared contingency plans for Syria’s energy sector back in 2011, anticipating al-Assad’s downfall. At that time, Washington expected a swift end to al-Assad’s regime and had developed options to manage Syria’s crucial oil and gas assets.

Before the civil war, Syria was producing about 400,000 barrels of oil per day, with 2.5 billion barrels in proved reserves. The country was a significant oil supplier to European refineries, particularly in Germany, Italy, and France, until the conflict disrupted its energy infrastructure. Syria also boasted substantial natural gas reserves of 8.5 trillion cubic feet, with production at 316 billion cubic feet per day. As the war escalated, various countries – including the U.S., Russia, and European nations – had planned different strategies for maintaining Syria’s energy flow, with pipelines and projects tied to the region’s political future.

Despite predictions of Assad's swift fall, he survived, with crucial support from Russia. Moscow has since focused on resuming the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline project, which is part of a larger geopolitical strategy to strengthen its presence in the Middle East. Russia also holds key assets in Syria, including the Tartus naval base, the only Russian port in the Mediterranean, and the Khmeimim airbase* near Latakia. These installations, alongside Syria’s strategic location, enhance Russia’s leverage in the region.

Syria’s oil and gas resources remain crucial to Russia’s broader strategy, as the country aims to extend its influence over the Shia Crescent, a geopolitical block formed by Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Additionally, Syria offers a Mediterranean coastline from which Russia and its allies, particularly Iran, can export goods, including oil and gas, to European and African markets.

The removal of al-Assad has also opened the door for Turkey to increase its influence in Syria. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced plans to assist in the reconstruction of Syria’s oil and gas sectors, potentially leveraging Syria’s energy resources to aid reconstruction efforts. This is especially important as Turkey seeks to strengthen its role in the region, especially with the ongoing energy crisis in Europe and the geopolitical dynamics involving Russia and China.

U.S. and European Involvement

The United States and European nations are not stepping back, though. Sources suggest that Washington’s support for Syrian rebel groups, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was a direct response to signaling to Moscow and Tehran that Washington remains a dominant force in the region. The U.S. and its allies have strategic interests in the region’s energy resources and broader stability, especially as they continue to counter Russia’s influence.

Furthermore, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has been expanding into the Middle East, could intersect with the Land Bridge project through Syria, a critical corridor linking Iran to Syria, with direct implications for Israel and regional security.

Russia, Energy, and Geopolitics

Russia’s plans for Syria also align with its broader energy ambitions. The Strategic Development Road (SDR), a China-backed infrastructure project, could further intertwine Syria’s role with the Belt and Road Initiative, potentially providing both Russia and China with greater economic and military leverage in the region.

Energy Security in Europe

Meanwhile, the energy crisis in Europe has been exacerbated by the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. With Russian gas exports to Europe ending on January 1, 2025, following a breakdown in Ukraine-Russia negotiations, the EU faces new challenges in securing its energy supply. Despite these challenges, alternative gas supplies from Azerbaijan have helped mitigate the impact for countries like Slovakia, which secured alternative supplies from SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company. The natural gas fields of Israel, Cyprus and Egypt are also being considered as alternate sources by various European countries.