UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief to Visit Iran Amid Rising Tensions Over Nuclear Program

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, is set to visit Iran on November 13 for consultations with Iranian officials, according to reports from Iranian state media on November 10. Grossi’s visit comes as discussions continue regarding Iran’s controversial nuclear program and its compliance with international agreements.

The IAEA chief had signaled the possibility of visiting Iran in recent weeks, particularly to address concerns surrounding Tehran's nuclear activities. Grossi is expected to engage in talks with Iranian officials to explore avenues for resolving long-standing disputes between Iran, the IAEA, and the West. One of the major points of contention has been Iran's refusal to allow uranium-enrichment experts from IAEA inspection teams, as well as its failure to provide clear explanations for traces of uranium found at undeclared sites.

Since 2019, Iran has increasingly ramped up its nuclear activity, particularly after the United States, under former President Donald Trump, withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — the nuclear deal Iran had reached with world powers. In response to the U.S. withdrawal and the restoration of severe sanctions, Iran resumed some of its nuclear enrichment activities, raising concerns that the country is working towards the development of nuclear weapons.

Tensions Between Iran and the U.S.

The upcoming talks between Grossi and Iranian officials come at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, especially between Iran and the United States. On November 9, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi dismissed U.S. accusations linking Tehran to an alleged plot to assassinate Donald Trump, which had been reported by U.S. intelligence agencies. Araqchi called the allegations a “fabricated scenario” and criticized the U.S. for creating a “third-rate comedy.” The alleged plot, purportedly orchestrated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), was dismissed by Tehran as baseless.

Araqchi’s remarks were part of a broader diplomatic effort to ease tensions between the two countries, with the Iranian government calling for confidence-building measures. This followed recent reports that U.S. intelligence had implicated Iran in an attempt to assassinate the U.S. president-elect. Iran has repeatedly denied these charges and called for a reassessment of U.S. policies towards Tehran under the incoming Biden administration, particularly the “maximum pressure” strategy that the Trump administration pursued.

Iran’s Shifting Geopolitical Stance

Meanwhile, Iranian officials have signaled an openness to re-engage with the United States. Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s Vice President for Strategic Affairs, urged President-elect Trump to reconsider the “maximum pressure” strategy that aimed to isolate Iran economically and diplomatically. Zarif emphasized the importance of diplomatic engagement and suggested that Trump reconsider past policies, which he argued had proven counterproductive.

Zarif’s comments come as part of Iran’s broader diplomatic outreach, seeking to address both its nuclear program and strained relations with the West. Iran has also voiced its desire for a return to the 2015 nuclear deal, provided that sanctions are lifted and the terms are renegotiated. However, the situation remains complex, with both sides remaining wary of each other’s intentions.

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: A Ticking Geopolitical Time Bomb?

Another key area of concern in the region is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil consumption passes. In the wake of rising tensions between Israel and Iran, analysts have once again begun speculating about the potential for Iran to block this vital shipping lane, a move that could have significant consequences for global oil markets.

Although Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in the past, experts view such a move as unlikely. A blockade would not only disrupt oil exports from Iran but also affect other major oil exporters in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The impact on global oil markets would be severe, sending oil prices soaring, particularly as China, the world's largest oil importer, relies heavily on oil passing through the strait.

Despite these threats, analysts believe that the likelihood of a full blockade remains low. The U.S. military’s significant presence in the Persian Gulf, including the Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain, provides a counterbalance to any Iranian efforts to disrupt maritime traffic. Furthermore, Iran itself would face considerable economic consequences, as much of its oil is exported through the Strait of Hormuz to China, and any blockade would disrupt this vital revenue stream.

Iran’s Evolving Oil Export Strategy

In an effort to mitigate the potential impact of a blockade, Iran has been working to diversify its oil export routes. The inauguration of the Goreh-Jask pipeline in 2021, which links Iran’s oil fields to the Gulf of Oman, was seen as a significant step in this direction. The Jask terminal, with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), allows Iran to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. While the pipeline’s capacity is currently limited, satellite imagery has shown that Iran has been storing oil at the Jask facility, suggesting a possible shift in Tehran’s long-term oil export strategy.

Despite these developments, Iran’s oil exports have been affected by international sanctions and concerns over potential Israeli retaliation following recent Iranian missile attacks on Israeli targets. These factors have contributed to a slump in Iranian oil loadings, with fears that Israel may target Iran’s energy infrastructure if tensions continue to escalate.

Looking Ahead: Challenges for the Incoming U.S. Administration

With President-elect Donald Trump expected to take office in January 2025, analysts anticipate that his policies toward Iran will closely mirror those of his first term, including the reimposition of sanctions and pressure on Tehran to curb its nuclear activities.

However, Iran’s growing oil export capacity, including its development of bypass routes like the Jask pipeline, may offer Tehran some economic resilience in the face of renewed sanctions. Yet, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key global chokepoint, any attempt by Iran to disrupt shipping traffic would have far-reaching consequences for the global economy, especially energy markets.