Turkey's Rising Influence in Syria: The Geopolitical Shift and Its Implications

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government at the hands of rebel forces, including Ankara-backed factions, has marked a significant turning point in the Syrian conflict. Turkey is now emerging as the dominant foreign actor in Syria, pushing back the influence of Iran and Russia, which had long supported Assad’s regime. This shift has ignited a rivalry between Turkey and Iran, not only in Syria but also in the broader South Caucasus region.

Turkey’s growing prominence in Syria has exacerbated tensions with Iran, which has relied on Assad’s government to further its regional interests, including its support for Hezbollah and its ability to project power through Syria.

Despite these tensions, experts suggest that this rivalry may not drastically alter Turkey-Iran relations, as both countries may continue to find areas of alignment, especially against common adversaries, including Israel.

For Russia, Assad's survival meant maintaining key military footholds in the Mediterranean, such as the Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval base.

What Does Turkey Want in Syria?

Since the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, Turkey has backed rebel groups seeking to overthrow Assad, with an emphasis on countering the Syrian Kurdish groups such as the PYD (Democratic Union Party) and the YPG (People’s Protection Units). These Kurdish forces, which lead the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), are viewed by Turkey as a significant threat due to their ties with the PKK, a Kurdish separatist group that has fought against Turkey for decades.

For Turkey, the primary objectives in Syria are to:

1. Fight the YPG/PYD: These Kurdish groups are seen as a direct security threat to Turkey.

2. Enable Syrian refugees’ return: Turkey has been hosting millions of Syrian refugees and seeks to stabilize the regions of Syria they return to.

3. Prevent further refugee flows: Turkey is keen to avoid any new influx of refugees into its borders.

The Kurdish Question and Turkey's Position

The U.S. withdrawal from northern Syria in 2018-2019, coupled with pressure from Turkey, has significantly weakened the U.S. support for the Kurdish-led SDF. With Assad’s fall, Turkey-backed rebel forces have made inroads into Kurdish-held territories, including the cities of Manbij and Tarafat, intensifying Turkey’s influence.

For the Kurds, the situation remains precarious, with limited protection from the U.S. military and an uncertain future. The Assad government’s preference for rapprochement with Turkey could leave the Kurds in a vulnerable position, with no clear path forward unless they strike agreements with groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist group with links to Turkey’s rivals.

Meanwhile, amid the shifting dynamics in Syria, the U.S. military has continued its efforts to combat ISIS in the region. On Monday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported the elimination of two ISIS terrorists in Dayr az Zawr Province during a precision airstrike. The attack, which destroyed a truckload of weapons, was part of the U.S.’s broader strategy to disrupt ISIS operations in the region. This follows the recent killing of ISIS leader Abu Yusif in a similar strike.

The Road Ahead

Turkey’s increasing influence in Syria comes at a time when the balance of power in the Middle East is being redrawn. The weakening of Iran’s position in Syria could have wider ramifications for the South Caucasus, where Iran, Russia, and Turkey are engaged in a struggle for regional supremacy.

While the Astana peace talks format, which involved Russia, Turkey, and Iran, may be losing relevance, experts suggest that coordination between these powers on regional conflicts, including in Syria and the South Caucasus, is still possible.

Turkey’s rise in Syria and its potential maritime agreements with Damascus could also boost Ankara’s position in the Mediterranean. As the region continues to experience shifting alliances and heightened tensions, Turkey’s role as a regional power is increasingly secure, albeit at the expense of its rivals, Iran and Russia.